Procedural Vote Passes As Debate On Healthcare Bill Begins
Update 2: The House has just passed a procedural vote by a margin of 230 - 194 which now clears
the path for 4 hours of floor debate on the healthcare bill which will be followed by
a vote later this afternoon on the legislation.
Update per The Hill:
Six Republicans voted against the rule, an unusually high number.
Lawmakers typically do not break ranks on procedural votes, which are viewed as a referendum
on how leadership is managing the floor.
Among the Republicans who voted against the rule were Reps. Justin Amash , Thomas Massie
and Walter Jones.
All three voted Thursday night against invoking what is known as "martial law" rule to speed
the legislation to the floor.
Lawmakers typically stick with their party on the rules votes even if they plan to vote
against the underlying legislation.
The rule stipulates that floor debate on the healthcare legislation will last four hours,
with time equally divided between Republicans and Democrats.
That sets up a likely vote around 4 p.m. or 5 p.m.
Meanwhile, The Hill�s latest whip list still shows around 30 Republicans planning to vote
against the bill which is more than the maximum of 22 defections GOP leaders can afford and
have the bill still pass.
Update 1: As largely expected, the House Rules Committee has just signed off on the GOP�s
ObamaCare repeal plan, with a 9-3 vote, which clears the path for a showdown vote later
today.
The panel was the bill�s final stop before heading for a floor vote.
As of now, the plan is to begin debate on the healthcare bill at 10AM EST.
There is expected to be a 1 hour debate on rules and then 4 hours of general debate which
sets the House up for a procedural vote around 11:15 am EST and a final vote expected around
4.45 pm.
Yesterday was undoubtedly a debacle of a day for Republicans which ultimately culminated
with the failure of the Trump administration and Paul Ryan to secure a sufficient number
of votes from the House Freedom Caucus to pass their healthcare bill (we covered the
chaos here).
And after the day of misery, team Trump decided that they would rather not continue the political
charade in perpetuity and instead decided to offer conservatives in the House an ultimatum:
vote tomorrow (i.e. today) or "I'm done with healthcare."
Which, of course, would seem to be a negotiating tactic taken directly for The Art of the Deal
101:
�The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it.� - The
Art of the Deal � Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January
7, 2013
Meanwhile, the Associated Press seemed to sum up the gravity of today's vote the best,
referring to it simply as a "gamble with monumental political stakes."
"In a gamble with monumental political stakes, Republicans set course for a climactic House
vote on their health care overhaul after President Donald Trump claimed he was finished negotiating
with GOP holdouts and determined to pursue the rest of his agenda, win or lose."
With all that said, per Fox News, after a few procedural moves, the House will likely
vote on Trumpcare sometime in the mid-to-late afternoon with House Majority Leader Kevin
McCarthy (R-CA) predicting that the vote will wrap up by 4:30 or 5 p.m. ET.
As we pointed out yesterday, the TrumpCare vote is the first high-stakes political battle
of Trump's Presidency and pits Trump against the more conservative elements of the Republican
Party.
For Trump, failure to pass healthcare reform would be a major blow as it was a signature
component of his campaign and could signal that he will face an uphill battle against
the Freedom Caucus to implement other policy initiatives.
For conservatives, they must choose between supporting their party and a bill that has
been dubbed "Obamacare-lite" at the risk of alienating powerful conservative funders,
like the Koch Brothers and their various Super PACs, which got them elected in the first
place.
Meanwhile, "round-the-clock" negotiations continue as the White House and mainstream
Republicans attempt to sway some last minute votes.
Meanwhile, Trump met inside the Cabinet room with the Freedom caucus to try and rally conservatives
to the cause.
He also tweeted, urging supporters to call their representatives to back the bill.
A senior administration official told Fox News after the meeting with Trump and the
conservative group that there was a deal in the works, but that it was not yet finalized.
A source from the Freedom Caucus later said there wasn't yet a deal.
"I would say progress is being made, and that progress should be applauded with the efforts
by the White House to deliver on a campaign promise, and to lower premiums for every American
from coast to coast and in between," Meadows said.
He also called Trump's involvement "unparalleled in the history of our country."
And while it's almost impossible to predict how today's vote will turn out, Goldman Sachs
is pegging the chances of success at 60%.
The House vote on the American Health Care Act (AHCA) has been delayed due to a lack
of support.
Our subjective odds of passage in the House before the upcoming two-week congressional
recess, which begins April 7, are 60%.
This is slightly lower than our last estimate, in part because there appears to be somewhat
greater-than-expected opposition among centrist Republicans, in addition to the well-known
opposition among members of the conservative "Freedom Caucus"
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