good afternoon everybody welcome back to
another video here on February 18th 2019
here on your gorgeous Presidents Day
Monday here I am meteorologist David
Schlotthauer in this video we're
actually going to be discussing a couple
of things lots of ice, lots of rain
across the southeast that's gonna lead
to flooding and now we're beginning to
be concerned a little bit about too much
snow now for the Iowa for the Wisconsin
for the Minnesota area that part of the
u.s. also the four corners we're talking
a lot about snow here over the next 10
days so let's get on with the video
because we do have a lot of detail to
cover. So here's a look at the European
model here for Tuesday morning already
and you can see here what's what we're
seeing just a little bit of snow can be
light to moderate at times across the
four corners nothing much there but this
system and this system down here are
both going to be colliding to each other
and this is going to create a lot of
rain and a lot of ice for the parts of
Virginia West Virginia and it's because
of the surface high pressure system the
air the cooler air with it will try to
flow southward under the warmer air and
that's going to create freezing rain
you'll see that here for Wednesday so
you can see here for Tuesday afternoon
this is when I plan on going live on my
youtube channel I'll make sure I make
that today so I can warn I'll let you
guys know about several hours in advance
when that does know live and you can see
here light to moderate to perhaps
heavier rain all across the deep south
and also the south east here including
Georgia Alabama Louisiana Mississippi
Arkansas eastern half of Texas the
Oklahoma area and also for Tennessee and
North and South Carolina seen a lot of
that heavy
a little bit of shower activity there
for Florida alright this system is
really gonna get more mature though so
here's a look at Wednesday morning and
you can see here remember that cooler
air to the north of this this is going
to be the setup for a lot of cooler air
that's gonna underlie the warmer air so
the cooler air digging sneaking below
the warmer air and that's gonna create
an area of freezing rain as this high
moves through the area and that's gonna
create damming we call it pressure
damming when we see this taking place
and that's gonna create that freezing
rain again lots of rain I will have the
rain totals here in just a little bit so
here's a look at now Wednesday afternoon
you can see where that high pressure
actually is still producing a lot of
light to moderate freezing rain all
right so again these areas have had too
much ice this winter instead of snow and
technically instead of rain it's
freezing rain but falls under the
umbrella with the same thing but I'll
tell you what our height it's just not
looking good when you look at ice and
power outages difficulty driving
hazardous in fact dangerous driving
conditions are likely all right lots of
rain down here once again across
Tennessee the southeast their Georgia
Alabama Mississippi then we're gonna
keep an eye okay this is Thursday we're
gonna keep an eye on a deep trough
that's really gonna be taking place it's
located right about here okay it's a
huge trough
I mean it's digging pretty far south and
this is a setup for Colorado rocky lows
too deep in it pretty quickly all right
you'll see that here with the isobars
and with the all the dynamics gonna be
taking place there's also a threat maybe
for severe weather with this one also
all right so lots of snow for the four
corners here over the next four to six
days okay you can see that there for
Phoenix Arizona for the Albuquerque new
map
ago can get some very strong winds some
snow there also for the st. George Utah
area also for Colorado getting in on a
lot of that snow that's going to be
taking place now again here's that
surface low that deepens Saturday
morning now this is what the latest
European model ECM WUF okay models the
one of the most accurate models I could
show you guys and you can see with what
this model actually shows here lots of
snow and some freezing rain with this
too so to make matters worse it's not
looking good okay I've been keeping an
eye on this and I would tell you I would
told you already that I would and you
can see there lots of snow on the north
western and also western and northern
sign of this lots of rain and warmer air
with this that are again there is a
chance for severe weather as this takes
place here muggy warm kind of mild
weather in across the sector right here
where that warmer air is where all that
moisture lies okay so you can see there
may be again that severe weather and
look at that curlicue everyone just look
at the structure like probably a per
this is pretty good almost pretty much
classic here you got to the lower
pressure system here okay you got the
cold front actually you got an occluded
front that takes place right here
splitting off from that is the warm
front that's actually taking place you
got a surface flow right there actually
with that warm front that's going to be
taking place again lots of atmospheric
River moisture down here going to still
continue to bring a lot of rain all
right and this is for Monday and when
you think it's all over no it's not I
think you're gonna still get a lot of
rain over the next 10 days for the
southeast you don't need any more rain
everyone I am telling you what right now
this is gonna lead to a lot of problems
on roadways so turn around do not drown
please I want I'm looking out for your
safety
I worry about every one of you and I
don't want any deaths to occur because
people decide that maybe I'll drive
through the water it's not that deep
because maybe the road below that water
has worn away and then you're driving
through big thick mud and so you know
swampy stuff alright so that's a look at
the radar forecasts I hope I did a good
job on that and we're now gonna look at
the snow forecast here because again
it's now the Upper Midwest and also the
Northern Plains and and the high plains
turn to get in on a lot of the snow and
you can see here this big corridor here
with that snowstorm right now in the
next 10 days this is to change this is
to be announced again this is not going
to be the same but right now 10 to 12
inches across central Iowa northwest
Iowa strong winds heavy snow blizzard
conditions possible maybe 20 inches of
snow there all right Jacqueline Nelson
you live up here right right there it
exactly you're gonna get them on a lot
of snow for the nebraska area a lot of
snow probably 10 to 15 inches and then a
lot of snow here for northwestern
Wisconsin for central Minnesota maybe 10
to 16 inches of snow for the
four-corners here we're looking at 1
to 3 feet of snow just depending on
your elevation if you're in the Phoenix
Arizona area you probably won't see any
snow at all but if you get in the higher
elevations where it's cooler you're
gonna get a lot more snow obviously
there many areas here 6 inches all the
way up to about 3 feet of snow
possible that's that 36 inches that we
have right there noted on the graph okay
so here's a look at now the Cascade
Range more snow on the way but I do see
it being a little higher in elevation so
more above say two or three thousand
feet high more likely above maybe 15
maybe 2000 feet high we're expecting
about 1 to
2 feet of snow some areas maybe even
3 to 4 feet here so good snowpack
hopefully that continues for Oregon and
Washington you guys certainly need more
snow and more rain than we do here in
California obviously and again any areas
down here do not need any more rain at
all as you guys are gonna get flooded
significantly and also ice accumulations
we'll get to that in just a little bit
all right
how much rain over the next pretty much
ten days here again a 10-day forecast 10
days 10 inches of rain possibly for the
Alabama area in the bullseye for the
heaviest rain in here okay so you guys
don't need any more rain Tennessee good
news is they're not in the worst right
now at this point I think the heaviest
rain will be just south of you
but still don't let your guard down
could see maybe fine to maybe seven
inches of rain better than 10 inches
like what we were predicting a couple of
days ago but down here still I'm very
confident that there is going to be a
lot of flood problems on roadways and a
lot of concerns even in Kentucky and in
southern Indiana southern Ohio gonna see
problems out there North and South
Carolina Georgia the Louisiana Arkansas
Eastern Texas too much rain in these
areas alright so again that's the sort
of thing that leads to flooding and once
again I'm gonna let you guys look at the
map here over the next 10 days once
again just a closer perspective I went
through this already I don't want to
mention it again just like I said please
be careful if you are driving because
there could be some landslides some
mudslides and stuff over the
Appalachians you don't want to get stuck
in that obviously then down here I've
over the next basically nine and a half
to ten days here you can see where most
of the rain is in a closer sector off
you obviously we're seeing possibly five
to nine inches in some areas again this
is the
potential this is a 5% chance that you
will see 10 inches in the next 10 days
but it just gives you an idea that oh
maybe it is we're in trouble if we get
flooded out you can see the previous
model only so 9.2 inches this model
shows 10 inches sharps so we'll
certainly monitor this very closely
because it just means more flood
problems for your area all right now
this is not rendering very well for
Florida obviously we're gonna see what
we can do here and it only goes out to
174 hours but I've seen about a quarter
of an inch all the way up to about 3/4
of an inch of rainfall there over the
next 10 days at least for central and
southern Florida northern Florida could
get a little bit more now probably two
inches but southern Florida looks at
hang in there with below about a half an
inch of rain so if you don't like the
rain go down across the South where
there's not going to be any flawed
problems or go north where there's not
going to be any heavy rain concerns
there all right so we're gonna get to
weather models and we're gonna look
actually at the ice accumulation
forecast here for the South for the
mid-atlantic states here and this only
goes out actually 60 hours so this is
going to render further and further and
this is the latest model here I got the
latest model run here 12z run and you
can see with what the latest prediction
actually shows here between a quarter of
an inch all the way up to probably
getting close to an inch and a half of
ice accumulations right in here also
sleet sleet and ice and some snow
accumulations here really gonna make
travel very difficult to nearly
dangerous okay that's the whole threat
here that we're looking at so lots of
ice a little bit of snow lots and lots
of rain and you can see here in the
higher elevations here of the Georgia
and all
so the valleys three inches okay oops
why did I eat mean to click on that so
you can see they're even four inches I
thought I just saw four inches there let
me see here and yeah like they're 4
point 11 inches of ice and sleet
potentially so that's going to ask for
big trouble there if you're living in
that area obviously one last sector I do
want to cover is down here where I think
there will be some ice over the next
some ice at least or quite a bit of ice
actually we could be looking at a half
an inch to maybe a quarter of an inch of
ice and remember freezing rain is
created when colder air jumps under or
sneaks under the warmer air and the
ingredients are freezing rain everyone
so I sure hope I covered a lot of detail
in this video if I did please make sure
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so awesome here for you all all right so
that's gonna do with this video if I do
have time today or most likely tomorrow
I will be streaming live definitely by
tomorrow I'll see if I can make another
updated version video today on the
latest flood threat but I don't think
I'll need to alright see you guys back
here tomorrow anyways
Thank you
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