Why is Donald Trump so interested in punishing the Islamic Republic of Iran?
If you've seen the previous videos on this series, you might believe that he's interested
in raising oil prices, helping his Saudi friends or just showing the European Union who's
boss.
But here is another hypothesis…
What if what Donald Trump is going after is… the end of authoritarian rule in Iran?
This is not a stupid theory.
Iran is at the edge of economic collapse.
Anti government protests are frequent and, unlike other countries in the region, Iran
does have a secular, liberal and democratic opposition.
This means you don't need to wage a real war to bring democracy to this country.
Choking the regime financially could be enough.
If this plan went as well as it sounds, Donald Trump could even win a Peace Nobel prize.
Obama would look dumb, and Trump would win the 2020 elections for sure.
But… what if it doesn't turn out as well as planned?
Is the Ayatolah regime as weak as we think?
Can Trump win this bet?
We will cover all of this in this video.
Iran is the man America loves to hate.
Of course, the White House claims that the nuclear sanctions are not meant to topple
the regime but…
Is that true?
White House national-security adviser John Bolton says the United States is not seeking
to topple Iran's government, but says Washington does want authorities in Tehran to change
their behavior.
The truth is, for decades, America has been trying to do everything possible to curb the
Ayatolahs' power.
For example… have you ever heard of Radio Free Europe?
During the cold war, the American congress created this radio to spread anti communist
messages in the Soviet Union.
Today, this radio still exists.
Actually, they have their offices very close to where I'm recording this video, in Prague,
Czech Republic.
And guess what!
This radio has a whole department devoted to Iran.
They broadcast news in the farsi language to spread anti Ayatola messages inside the
country.
This means Washington is definitely interested in a regime change in Tehran.
Another matter is whether it's possible or not.
And now you might wonder… is Iran really such a horrible dictatorship?
At the end of the day, they have elections and political parties, right?
Well, yes and no.
Yes, it is true that Iranians can vote for their president.
But the actual person in charge is the Supreme Leader, Ayatolah Khamenei.
For a better understanding, Khamenei chooses most of the ministers and has the ultimate
word on international affairs and many important laws.
Of course, political dissidents are prosecuted and often killed by the government.
In fact, despite having some opposition movements… there are almost no important leaders.
Why?
Well, all of them are dead, imprisoned or exiled.
And what happens with the pro system political forces?
Well… rather than political parties, we should talk about different factions here.
On one hand, we have the so called hard liners.
These are the people that support the system created by Khomeini to the letter: religious
law and the state led economy.
Then we have the reformists who want to change the regime from the inside.
As you can imagine, this faction has less and less power nowadays.
Finally we have the pragmatists, whose most important representative is the current president:
HASSAN ROUHANNI.
They are somewhere in between the hard liners and the reformists.
They want some economic reforms and better relations with the West, but still want to
keep some religious control in political matters.
And here we have the second question… is it really possible for this whole political
system to fall apart?
Well… there is a chance.
You see, when the economic does OK, it's easy to keep an authoritarian system going.
Many citizens are happy to trade freedom for welfare.
But Iran has spent too much time without welfare.
Iranian currency, the RIAL, is devaluating day after day.
And this has led to brutal inflation.
Some non official estimations claim that Iran will have more than a 100% inflation rate
this year.
That means that some prices change on daily basis.
Many foods like chicken are starting to become scarce.
And there are more and more people living below the poverty line.
Even with the government privatizations, the economy is a mess.
We already told you here, on VisualPolitik, at the beginning of the year.
2018 started with massive protests against the Rouhani government.
And many of those protesters were young university students who wanted a shift in the system.
A shift to one that's democratic, secular and liberal.
But the question, the real question here is…
Is all of this enough to cause a regime change?
Today we will answer this question but, before we do, let's take a look back at history.
THE PRAETORIAN GUARD
In the year 1979 the Islamic Revolution started in Iran.
The Supreme Leader back then, the Ayatolah Khomeini knew that the army might betray him
at any moment.
After decades serving the SHAH of Persia, it was hard for them to just change their
loyalties overnight.
This is why, in order to avoid a coup d'etat, Khomeini created his own parallel army.
This is how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard was created.
A sort of modern day praetorian guard designed to 'preserve the Islamic Republican System'.
In the beginning, all the members were volunteers.
But things changed in the 80s.
Back then, Iran started a war with Iraq.
And who did they send to the front?
Of course, they sent these praetorians who were willing to do anything for their cause.
And… you know, in times of warfare, there's always enough money for more weapons.
This is how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard gained more and more influence, more weaponry
and more experience.
By the end of the Iran-Iraq war, this praetorian guard already had more than 130,000 soldiers
plus many other smaller corps that depended on them.
Today, this revolutionary guard has its own intelligence service, parallel to the government's
ministry of intelligence.
And they can imprison or investigate people without even reporting to the authorities.
In other words, they are the cornerstone of the Islamic Revolution but, then again, they
have a parallel system.
And why are they so important?
The truth is… as far as the economy goes, it's hard to create an alternative to the
system if you have an elite corp spying on any would-be political activist.
And yes, we are talking about an elite corp here.
Perfectly trained for hybrid warfare.
They have fought in many other wars such as Syria, Iraq and even Afghanistan.
And all the experts say their training is world class.
And now you might wonder…
How can they buy weapons?
I mean… if Iran is so isolated from the international market….
How is that possible?
Well… the truth is, for decades, Iran has had its own weapon manufacturing industry.
Yes, you heard that right.
They use Chinese and Russian designs but the manufacturing is done in Iran.
So now of course the question is, won't they be affected by these economic sanctions?
At the end of the day, if Iran has no money, this Guard won't be able to buy bullets
and weapons, right?
Well, my dear viewers… nothing could be further from the truth.
External pressure and lack of foreign competitors will most likely help the IRGC further consolidate
its grip over Iran's economy" Ali Alfoneh, Arab Gulf States Institute in
Washington
For a better understanding, a big portion of Iran's economy is in the Revolutionary
Guard's hands.
They own many state monopolies, including oil companies, refineries and real estate
firms.
For example, 51% of Iran Telecom belongs to them.
Add to this the fact they pay almost no taxes and you have completely self-sustainable economics.
With a parallel army that is so well maintained, it's hard to have a regime change.
But if you thought this is the only asset the Ayatolahs have… you are very, very mistaken…
You'll see why straight ahead.
CHINA COMES TO THE RESCUE!
We said this many times in this series of videos: China will keep buying oil from Iran.
They just can't stop doing this.
China needs lots of dinosaur juice.
And, for years, Iran has been their 6th most important supplier.
We are talking about more than 800,000 barrels that come from Iran every day.
With these numbers it's hard to suddenly change providers.
And yes, yes, I know what you're thinking now!
If you've seen the previous videos, you already know that America has a secret weapon
to keep countries from buying Iranian oil.
Basically, no oil tanker can dock in a harbour if it's not covered by an insurance company.
And most of the insurance companies are European or American.
So… how can China keep buying oil from Iran?
Well… check this out…
Exclusive: China shifts to Iranian tankers to keep oil flowing amid U.S. sanctions
Yes, you heard this right.
Without insurance companies, Iran will take care of the transport and all the risk.
Do we have to care about the oil tankers maintenance?
Iran pays!
A ship can't reach its destination?
Iran pays!
A ship sinks in the sea?
Iran pays!
But this is not the end of the story!
Think about it… if the rest of the World is going to stop investing in Iran… what
do we have left?
Exactly!
Freed up space for China's money!
Hence, news like this.
Chinese Firm To Invest $2B In Oil Refinery In Iran
Yes, you heard that right!
China is taking advantage of the void other companies have left.
In fact, they are even buying the investments other European companies made.
For example, TOTAL is a French oil company.
In 2016, they started building what was meant to be the biggest gas field on the planet.
Now, with Trump's sanctions, chances are they will have to retire this project.
And who is ready to buy it?
Exactly!
China!
This summer 2018, the China Development Bank announced they will give more than 15 billion
dollars in loans for all kinds of projects.
And you might wonder… is this big or small Money?
Well… it has already helped Iran start building 5 brand new hospitals.
And what about other companies?
Remember when I told you Iran is one of the biggest car manufacturers in the region?
Well… one of the main brands is SAIPA.
They have already signed a Joint venture with another Chinese company called BRILLIANCE.
But this is just the beginning!
Let's see…
What is the most ambitious project in China?
Exactly!
The One Belt One Road project.
That new silk road Xi Jimping wants to build.
So… imagine what would be one of its biggest hubs.
China Eyes Iran as Important Belt and Road Hub
So far, they are already starting to renovate several railroads.
The idea is to connect the main Iranian cities with high speed trains so they can transport
goods.
And you might wonder…
Why is Iran so important?
Well… just look at this map and you'll understand.
Imagine a train full of Mobile phones travelling from China, going through Central Asia and
then going from Iran to Turkey.
Looks like the perfect route for China to send their products to Europe, doesn't it?
Of course, this is just one idea.
So far, Chinese businesses are already facing many issues in Central Asia.
But this is a matter for another video.
The truth is China is starting to invest heavily in Iran.
Does this mean Xi Jimping will save Iran's economy?
Of course not!
But will this be enough for the regime to survive?
Well… maybe.
And this explains why, in recent years, the political relations between these two countries
are becoming more and more fluid.
Xi Jinping Holds Talks with President Hassan Rouhani of Iran
So now it's your turn…
Do you really think Trump's sanctions will help end the Ayatollah regime?
Please, leave your answers in the comment section below.
And if you want to dive deeper into all the caveats of the Nuclear Sanctions, you can
check out the whole series we've published.
Also, visit the RECONSIDER MEDIA WEBSITE, the podcast that provided the voices on this
episode that were not mine.
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If you liked this video, give us a thumbs up and, as always, I'll see you next time.
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