2020 Election News: Biden, Holder, & 'Yoga Vote' Tim Ryan | Heavy.com
Trump has not yet announced a reelection bid, though he filed the papers for reelection hours after his inauguration.
There's a ton we don't know about the 2020 presidential election, and a lot that we won't know for several months.
But while only one Democrat — congressman John Delaney of Maryland — has formally declared his candidacy, a picture of what the Democratic primary will look like is becoming a bit more clear.
We're about a year and a half away from the Iowa caucuses, which will take place on February 3, 2020.
Polling this far out from an election doesn't have great predictive value.
GOP primary polls at this point during the 2016 cycle didn't even list Donald Trump as an option.
But it's not useless, either.
At this point in 2014, Hillary Clinton had established herself as the clear Democratic frontrunner.
Though she got a more competitive challenge from Bernie Sanders than most people expected, she remained the favorite throughout the nominating contest.
What follows is the first installment in a series of posts examining the run-up to the Democratic and GOP primaries.
Bookmark our 2020 election page and follow me on Twitter for frequent updates and analysis.
2020 Election News.
Here's a roundup of the latest developments in the 2020 election:.
Republican National Committee Announces Charlotte as Location.
The Republican National Committee has announced Charlotte as its 2020 Convention Location.
The announcement marks the end of a year-long search for the site, in which Las Vegas was the other prime contender.
Charlotte, which hosted the Democratic convention in 2012, will host a major party convention for the second time in three cycles.
Former Attorney General Eric Holder Is Considering a Run.
White House Correspondent April Ryan tweeted on July 19 that former Attorney General Eric Holder is considering a presidential run.
Holder has previously acknowledged his considerations for a 2020 run, and said in a March interview that he would decide by "the beginning of next year" whether he would run or not.
Kamala Harris Recently Signed a Book Deal, Set to Release in January 2019.
About a week ago, Senator Kamala Harris signed a book deal with Penguin Books, which is often an indicator of a presidential run.
The book, titled 'The Truths We Hold: An American Journey', is set to be published in January, 2019, one year prior to the Iowa caucuses.
Joe Biden Says He'll Make a Decision by January.
As for Biden, he announced the deadline for announcing a potential presidential run.
During a meeting in Bogota, Columbia, Biden said that he knows he has to "make up his mind," and that he has to do it "by January.".
Ohio Rep.
Tim Ryan Is Considering a Presidential Run Focused on the 'Yoga Vote'.
According to a report by Intercept, Ohio Rep.
Tim Ryan is also considering a presidential run in 2020, and reportedly believes his journey to the White House would be via "the yoga vote".
Ryan has long been a champion of mindfulness and meditation, and has even created a "Quiet Time Caucus" in the House.
New 2020 Presidential Election Polls.
On July 20, CNN released its latest "Definitive Ranking of 2020 Democrats", a subjective set of rankings which lists Biden as the top contender, followed by Warren, Harris, Gilibrand, and Sanders to round out the top five.
In addition to those candidates, a bevy of new potential candidates were considered within the top ten, including Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Mayor Mitch Landrieu of New Orleans and Governor Steve Bullock of Montana.
2020 Election Prediction Markets.
Prediction markets such as those at PredictIt can be a useful window into the "conventional wisdom" about the state of the race.
Here's how traders at PredictIt see the Democratic primary, Republican primary, and general election: (Note: Prices for each candidate reflect the percentage chance traders give each candidate of winning the race.
For example, if a candidate is trading at 34 cents, that translates to that candidate having a 34 percent chance of winning the race.
For the sake of clarity, I'm converting PredictIt prices to percentage chances:).
2020 Democratic Primary Predictions.
PredictIt traders have Senator Kamala Harris as a narrow frontrunner to win the nomination.
Traders give Harris a 20 percent chance to win the nomination.
She's closely followed by Bernie Sanders at 17 percent, Joe Biden at 16 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 12 percent, and Cory Booker at 11 percent.
If you think there's a good chance the Democrats will nominate a celebrity candidate, you can get favorable odds on Oprah (4 percent) and The Rock (2 percent.).
2020 Republican Primary Predictions.
PredictIt traders have Donald Trump as a strong favorite, but far from a lock, to be the GOP nominee in 2020.
The market for who the nominee will be has Trump at 62 percent, followed by Vice President Mike Pence at 12 percent, Ohio governor and frequent Trump critic John Kasich at 7 percent, and 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney at 5 percent.
There's a separate market asking a simpler question: Will Trump be the GOP nominee in 2020? In that market, traders are slightly more bullish on Trump's odds, giving the president a 64 percent chance of being re-nominated.
2020 General Election Predictions.
PredictIt asks a couple different questions about the 2020 general election.
Each of them point to Democrats being modest favorites, at this extremely early point, to take back the White House.
On the question of which party will control the White House, traders have Democrats at 57 percent.
On the question of who will be elected president, traders have Trump at 39 percent — far higher than any other individual candidate, since he's a virtual shoo-in to be on the ballot if he seeks re-election, but lower than the combined totals for Democratic candidates such as Harris, Sanders, and Biden.
Here's What Was Happening by This Point Leading up to the 2016 Election.
At the two year mark leading up to the presidential election, no presidential candidates had announced their run, yet.
The first presidential candidate to announce his run was former Governor Jeb Bush, who declared that he would be "exploring a run for president" in December, 2014 (which would be five months from this period in time).
As for the Democratic side, several democratic groups had already begun to back a run by Hillary Clinton for President, though she would not announce her run until April, 2015.
There are two polls in the RealClearPolitics database that reflect data from July, 2014, both of which indicated a massive lead for Clinton over all other potential democratic candidates at the time.
The poll by CNN indicated that Clinton was polling at 67 percent in July 2014, with candidates Warren and Biden trailing behind her at 10 percent or less.




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